CASH
Narrative unverifiedOperating cash flow
Operating cash flow: €747.7M → €1.70B (+127.8% YOY)
Higher net income supports the operating cash flow increase in a partial statement bridge.
Statement decompositionStatement decomposition
A
ASML Holding N.V.
ASML
Price$1.74K
Market cap$665.3B
Market dataCurrent · 2026-09-23
FundamentalsLatest period · 2026-06-28
Primary filing6-K · Filed 2026-07-15
Current state
Standard DCF
Current price
$1.74K
Market capitalization
$665.3B
Valuation date
2026-09-23
Model-Implied Valuation Gap
-70.8%
negative means model value is below market capitalization
Model equity value
$194.5B
Previous gap
-71.5%
Change vs prior
+0.8 pp
Model & data status
Standard DCFStandard DCF · ValidData ready · Evidence recorded
Market dataCurrent · 2026-09-23
Latest period2026-06-28
Published2026-07-15
Why the model sees this gap
ASML's standard DCF implies equity value substantially below its market capitalization. The latest market-only update modestly narrowed this negative gap as market capitalization declined, partly offset by adverse FX translation. The broader recent widening reflects market re-rating alongside earlier reductions in base FCFF and forecast growth; a subsequent FCFF recovery provided only a partial offset. This is a model-dependent valuation comparison, not a recommendation or a certain fair-value conclusion.
Primary drivers
Market CapitalizationEUR → USD FX Translation
Central research view
Price, Fundamentals & Valuation
Series
Range
Scale
One reporting-period timeline preserves the supplied values in USD/share, EUR, EUR/share, and percent.Mixed units selected. Use Base 100 or Z-score for direct visual comparison.Reporting-period timeline; filed/published dates remain in evidence. No intermediate values are synthesized.
Point-in-time states
How the Valuation Gap Evolved
2026-09-23Market-only updateNarrowed by 0.8 ppLatest market decline modestly narrows the gap
What changed
The market-to-current update modestly narrowed the still-substantial negative gap.
Why changed
Lower market capitalization narrowed the comparison, partly offset by adverse FX. No operating or balance-sheet factor appears in the supplied attribution.
2026-07-16New Financial PeriodWidened by 5.7 ppMarket re-rating and lower cash outweigh FCFF recovery
What changed
The negative gap widened further.
Why changed
Higher market capitalization, lower cash and adverse FX outweighed improved FCFF, lower debt and a modestly higher growth input.
2026-04-16Information available · 2026-04-15 06:02:24 ETNew Financial PeriodWidened by 9.8 ppLower FCFF and growth outweigh market de-rating
What changed
The negative gap widened with the new operating period.
Why changed
Reduced FCFF and forecast growth weakened modeled value more than lower market capitalization narrowed the comparison. FX added a small adverse effect.
2026-02-26Information available · 2026-02-25 06:06:02 ETNew Valuation-Relevant InformationNarrowed by 0.5 ppBalance-sheet refresh yields modest narrowing
What changed
The same-period refresh slightly narrowed the negative gap.
Why changed
Higher cash and lower debt outweighed adverse FX and a higher market capitalization.
2026-01-29Information available · 2026-01-28 06:03:31 ETNew Financial PeriodWidened by 5.5 ppMarket re-rating outweighs a strong FCFF recovery
What changed
The negative gap widened despite stronger modeled cash flow.
Why changed
Higher market capitalization more than offset the increase in base FCFF and favorable FX.
2025-10-16Information available · 2025-10-15 06:01:05 ETNew Financial PeriodWidened by 19.4 ppFurther market re-rating drives widening
What changed
The negative gap widened substantially.
Why changed
Higher market capitalization was the main cause, reinforced by lower FCFF. Favorable FX only partly offset those effects.
Fundamental intelligence
What Changed — and Why
EARNINGS QUALITY
Narrative unverifiedNet income
Net income: €2.29B → €2.92B (+27.4% YOY)
A partial statement bridge links higher net income to stronger operating income, partly offset by a larger tax provision.
Statement decompositionStatement decomposition
GROWTH
Narrative unverifiedRevenue
Revenue: €7.69B → €9.33B (+21.3% YOY)
No verifiable explanation is supplied for quarterly year-over-year revenue growth.
Context only
PROFITABILITY
Narrative unverifiedOperating income
Operating income: €2.66B → €3.46B (+29.7% YOY)
The partial statement bridge shows higher gross profit outweighing increased operating expenses.
Statement decompositionStatement decomposition
Deterministic review
Quality of Earnings
No material earnings-quality anomalies are flagged in the current dataset.
Earnings context
Earnings & Multiples
TTM diluted EPS
€27.55
P/E
55.3×
Latest quarter EPS
€7.58
Calculation status
Mathematically valid
Local EPS is presented in EUR; USD translation is used only in the P/E calculation details.