AI Forecasts
PortfolioASMLFundamentals & Valuation
A

ASML Holding N.V.

ASML

Price$1,736.26
Market cap$665.3B
Market data as of2026-09-23
Fundamentals through2026-06-28
Data ready

Current state

Standard DCF

Current price

$1,736.26

Market capitalization

$665.3B

Valuation date

2026-09-23

Model-Implied Valuation Gap

-70.8%

relative to current market capitalization

Model equity value

$194.5B

Previous gap

-71.5%

Change vs prior

+0.8% pp

Model & data status

Standard DCFStandard DCF · PassHIGH confidenceP/E · PassEarnings contextFresh data
Published2026-07-15
Market data as of2026-09-23
Fundamentals through2026-06-28
Valuation date2026-09-23

Why the model sees this gap

ASML's standard DCF implies equity value substantially below its market capitalization. The latest market-only update modestly narrowed this negative gap as market capitalization declined, partly offset by adverse FX translation. The broader recent widening reflects market re-rating alongside earlier reductions in base FCFF and forecast growth; a subsequent FCFF recovery provided only a partial offset. This is a model-dependent valuation comparison, not a recommendation or a certain fair-value conclusion.

Primary drivers

market cap usedfx to usd used

Central research view

Price, Fundamentals & Valuation

Range
Scale
Stock PriceRevenue
Fundamental points reflect latest reported states; no daily interpolation

Point-in-time states

How the Valuation Gap Evolved

16 states · 15 transitions
2026-09-23Market Move Since Latest Fundamental State-71.5% → -70.8%Latest market decline modestly narrows the gap

What changed

The market-to-current update modestly narrowed the still-substantial negative gap.

Why changed

Lower market capitalization narrowed the comparison, partly offset by adverse FX. No operating or balance-sheet factor appears in the supplied attribution.

2026-07-16New Financial Period-65.8% → -71.5%Market re-rating and lower cash outweigh FCFF recovery

What changed

The negative gap widened further.

Why changed

Higher market capitalization, lower cash and adverse FX outweighed improved FCFF, lower debt and a modestly higher growth input.

2026-04-16New Financial Period-56% → -65.8%Lower FCFF and growth outweigh market de-rating

What changed

The negative gap widened with the new operating period.

Why changed

Reduced FCFF and forecast growth weakened modeled value more than lower market capitalization narrowed the comparison. FX added a small adverse effect.

2026-02-26New Valuation-Relevant Information-56.4% → -56%Balance-sheet refresh yields modest narrowing

What changed

The same-period refresh slightly narrowed the negative gap.

Why changed

Higher cash and lower debt outweighed adverse FX and a higher market capitalization.

2026-01-29New Financial Period-50.9% → -56.4%Market re-rating outweighs a strong FCFF recovery

What changed

The negative gap widened despite stronger modeled cash flow.

Why changed

Higher market capitalization more than offset the increase in base FCFF and favorable FX.

2025-10-16New Financial Period-31.5% → -50.9%Further market re-rating drives widening

What changed

The negative gap widened substantially.

Why changed

Higher market capitalization was the main cause, reinforced by lower FCFF. Favorable FX only partly offset those effects.

Fundamental intelligence

What Changed — and Why

CASH

MEDIUM

Operating cash flow

Operating cash flow: €747.7M → €1.70B (+127.8% YOY)

Higher net income supports the operating cash flow increase in a partial statement bridge.

EARNINGS QUALITY

MEDIUM

Net income

Net income: €2.29B → €2.92B (+27.4% YOY)

A partial statement bridge links higher net income to stronger operating income, partly offset by a larger tax provision.

GROWTH

Unverified

Revenue

Revenue: €7.69B → €9.33B (+21.3% YOY)

No verifiable explanation is supplied for quarterly year-over-year revenue growth.

PROFITABILITY

MEDIUM

Operating income

Operating income: €2.66B → €3.46B (+29.7% YOY)

The partial statement bridge shows higher gross profit outweighing increased operating expenses.

Deterministic review

Quality of Earnings

No current anomaly cards in the supplied fixture.

Earnings context

Earnings & Multiples

TTM diluted EPS

$31.371

P/E

55.3×

Latest quarter EPS

$7.58

Status

Pass

sum direct quarter diluted eps approx. P/E is context only and not an investment signal.

Reliability & provenance

Data Quality

Canonical facts1,414
Quarter periods20
Conflicts0
Unresolved0
Fundamentals history ready Coherent snapshot Evidence linked