NBIS
Current state
Current price
$226.61
Market capitalization
$61.6B
Valuation date
2026-09-23
Model-Implied Valuation Gap
negative means model value is below market capitalization
Model equity value
$13.2B
Previous gap
-80.9%
Change vs prior
+2.4 pp
Model & data status
Why the model sees this gap
The base growth-stage DCF implies an equity value substantially below current market capitalization. The gap narrowed through stronger revenue in the operating update and then a decline in market capitalization, but remains substantial. Scenario sensitivity is pronounced: the conservative case implies no equity value, while the upside case implies equity value above market capitalization. This is a scenario-dependent model gap, not certain fair value or a trading signal.
Primary drivers
Central research view
Point-in-time states
What changed
The model-implied shortfall narrowed further in the market-to-current update.
Why changed
The supplied attribution assigns the change to lower market capitalization, rather than an operating improvement or an FX effect.
What changed
The model-implied shortfall to market capitalization narrowed during the operating-period update.
Why changed
Higher revenue was the dominant fundamental contributor. Deeper operating losses, reduced cash and increased debt offset part of that benefit, while a rise in market capitalization separately widened the gap.
Scenario-based framework
Current projection only · NBIS_CURRENT · 3 scenarios × 10 years.
Conservative scenario
$0
-100% gap
Base scenario
$13.2B
-78.5% gap
Upside scenario
$100B
+62.4% gap
Historical values are excluded from the current projection. Any historical view is a fixed-policy replay, not a historical management forecast or analyst estimate.
Fundamental intelligence
CASH
Narrative unverifiedOperating cash flow from continuing operations: -$167.7M → $2.25B · turned profitable · N/M — sign change
No verified causal explanation is available for this change.
EARNINGS QUALITY
Explanation verifiedNet income from continuing operations: $502.5M → -$190.4M · turned to a loss · N/M — sign change
The swing to a loss reflected the non-recurrence of the prior-year ClickHouse revaluation gain, wider operating losses from AI-cloud expansion and higher interest expense, partly offset by other non-operating income items.
GROWTH
Explanation verifiedRevenue: $105.1M → $582.3M (+454.0% YOY)
Revenue growth was driven by capacity scaling, supported by higher pricing and improved utilization in AI cloud.
PROFITABILITY
Explanation verifiedOperating loss: $111.2M → $175.9M · Loss widened by $64.7M (58.2%)
Operating loss widened as continued expansion of the Nebius AI cloud business increased the operating cost base.
Deterministic review
Operating cash flow is positive while free cash flow is negative; CapEx/working-capital decomposition is required.
TTM · period ended 2026-06-30
Net income and operating income differ materially; tax, interest and other non-operating items require explanation.
TTM · period ended 2026-06-30
Earnings context
TTM diluted EPS
$0.22
P/E
1,031×
Latest quarter EPS
-$0.68
Calculation quality
Proxy — Limited Confidence