NBIS
Current state
Current price
$227.77
Market capitalization
$65.1B
Valuation date
2026-09-23
Model-Implied Valuation Gap
relative to current market capitalization
Model equity value
$13.2B
Previous gap
-81.4%
Change vs prior
+1.8% pp
Model & data status
Why the model sees this gap
The base growth-stage DCF implies an equity value substantially below current market capitalization. The gap narrowed through stronger revenue in the operating update and then a decline in market capitalization, but remains substantial. Scenario sensitivity is pronounced: the conservative case implies no equity value, while the upside case implies equity value above market capitalization. This is a scenario-dependent model gap, not certain fair value or a trading signal.
Primary drivers
Central research view
Point-in-time states
What changed
The model-implied shortfall narrowed further in the market-to-current update.
Why changed
The supplied attribution assigns the change to lower market capitalization, rather than an operating improvement or an FX effect.
What changed
The model-implied shortfall to market capitalization narrowed during the operating-period update.
Why changed
Higher revenue was the dominant fundamental contributor. Deeper operating losses, reduced cash and increased debt offset part of that benefit, while a rise in market capitalization separately widened the gap.
Scenario-based framework
Standard positive-FCFF DCF is unavailable; valuation is scenario-based.
Conservative scenario
$0
-100% gap
Base scenario
$13.2B
-79.6% gap
Upside scenario
$100B
+53.7% gap
Historical values are fixed-policy replays, not historical management forecasts or analyst estimates.
Fundamental intelligence
CASH
MEDIUMOperating cash flow: -$171.6M → $2.25B (sign change, YOY; percentage change not meaningful)
Operating cash flow turned positive, with accounts receivable and deferred revenue movements providing the principal cash-flow support.
EARNINGS QUALITY
HIGHNet income: $584.4M → -$190.4M (sign change, YOY; percentage change not meaningful)
Net income turned to a loss as the prior-year investment revaluation gain did not recur, operating losses widened and interest expense increased.
GROWTH
HIGHRevenue: $105.1M → $582.3M (+454.0% YOY)
Revenue growth was driven by capacity scaling, supported by higher pricing and improved utilization in AI cloud.
PROFITABILITY
HIGHOperating income: -$111.2M → -$175.9M (-58.2% YOY)
The operating loss widened as expansion-related costs and acquisition-related expenses outweighed revenue growth.
Deterministic review
Operating cash flow is positive while free cash flow is negative; CapEx/working-capital decomposition is required.
Net income and operating income differ materially; tax, interest and other non-operating items require explanation.
Earnings context
TTM diluted EPS
$0.22
P/E
1,037×
Latest quarter EPS
$-0.68
Status
Proxy · limited confidence
Reliability & provenance